Sex ratios are presented as the number of boys per 100 girls. The biologically natural sex ratio is 105, which means that 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. That figure is also represented as 105:100.
Gendercide in China
The term “gendercide” was coined by American feminist Mary Anne Warren.[i]
While some researchers have suggested that Hepatitis is responsible for the high sex ratio, this is not supported by the evidence. Looking at the 2000 census data, if a second child is a male it will arrive, on average, 4 months later than a second born female. This delay in birth indicates that there is human intervention, abortions or infanticide, taking place before the birth of a male second child.[ii]
In 2012, there were over 18 million more boys than girls under the age of 15 in China.[iii]
In 2012, the national government estimated that China has 40 million more males than females.[iv]
By 2020, the Chinese government estimates that there will be at least 30 million men of marriageable age that may be unable to find a spouse.[v]
In 2005, more than 1.1 million excess births of boys occurred.[vi]
According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, “the gender imbalance has been growing wider year after year.”[vii]
The most normal sex ratios are seen where the One-Child Policy is most permissive.[viii] One example can be seen in Tibet, which has the most permissive family planning in China with no birth limitation policies for Tibetans residing within the Tibet Autonomous Region, and, as of the 2005 census, was the only Chinese province which still had a normal sex ratio at birth.[ix]
The One-Child Policy seems to be causally linked to the increased sex ratio in China. Mothers who face stricter restrictions and higher fines are more likely to have a son once they are facing possible punishment. One example is the birth rates of women who have had a single daughter. The sex ratio of children born after this first daughter changes based on the policy being enforced, with the mothers in the one child area being 3 percentage points more likely to have a son.[x]
China alone stands to have as many unmarried young men—“bare branches”, as they are known—as the entire population of young men in America. At present, there are 40 million American men under 20. In 2020, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates that there will be 40 million more Chinese men than women in that same age group.[xi]
In 2005 (the most recent year for which this data is available), Chinese men were already having trouble finding brides, with 88% of all single Chinese between 35 and 39 being male. In this same age group, 99% of females were already married.[xii]
For reference, there are a total of 37.3 million people who live in California and 25.1 million who live in Texas.[xiii]
Dudley Poston, a Professor of Sociology at Texas A&M University, estimates that if China’s sex ratio holds steady there will be a projected 55 million extra males by 2020. Unfortunately, even if it improved to almost natural levels by 2020 there will still be an excess of 51 million males.[xiv]
Approximately 40 to 50 million Chinese men will never marry, and an estimated 12 to 15 percent of Chinese men will be unable to find a mate within the next seven years.[xv]
By 2030, projections suggest that more than 25% of Chinese men in their late 30s will never have married.[xvi]
The total U.S. population is just over 300 million. There are over 100 million “missing” girls in the world, of which about half would have been born in China.[xvii]
In fact, some experts estimate that if the gender ratio in Asia had stayed at the natural level (105:100) for the past few decades the continent would have 163 million more women.[xviii]
Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males.[xix]
An ultrasound, which can identify the gender of an unborn fetus, costs $12 in China.[xx]
Avraham Ebenstein, an economist, found that when making decisions about sex selection, Chinese families viewed a first-born son to have a worth of about 1.85 years of income, while the first-born girl held a value of only about 0.43 years of income.[xxi]
While ultrasound scans to identify the gender of the baby are illegal, the penalties are relatively light, creating numerous repeat offenders.[xxii]
Contrary to common thought, sex ratio at birth has a positive correlation with education, possibly because well-educated women choose (or are forced) to have less children, and therefore are will to have sex selective abortions earlier on than their rural counterparts. Another possibility is that better educated mothers have more access to, and ability to pay for, sex determination (ultrasounds).[xxiii]
In Suining city, people will pay ultrasound technicians up to $150 in bribes to determine the gender of their fetus, which is only one-tenth of the fine they would have to pay for having a child without a birth permit.[xxiv]
In-vitro fertilization for surrogate mothers was made illegal in 2001 due to the fact that it was utilized by couples who wanted to guarantee birth of a male. However, the treatment continues to appeal to parents unable to conceive or couples who wish to guarantee a boy outright. A reported 400-500 illegal surrogacy clinics operate in China.[xxv]
A recently-busted illegal clinic registered as a cosmetics company was providing in-vitro fertilization for $161,000 (1 million Chinese yuan) for a successful birth. If customers desired a guarantee that they would receive a boy, they paid an additional $32,186 (200,000 Chinese yuan).[xxvi]
Gendercide in China and other countries has far reaching consequences; the United Nations Development Programme is estimating that the global sex ratio at birth has risen from 105:100, in the period between 1975 and 1980, to 107:100 in the period between 2005 and 2010.[xxvii]
Sex Ratio vs. GDP per Capita: China, 1953-2005 (boys per 100 girls) [xxviii]
National Sex Ratios in China
Sex Ratios at birth over time in China:[xxix]
106:100 in 1979 (106 boys for every 100 girls)
111:100 in 1988
117:100 in 2001
According to the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China, as of January, 2010, the average male-to-female sex ratio for the infant-to-four-year-old age group in China is 123.26 males for every 100 females (123.26:100).[xxxi]
Six provinces have sex ratios of over 130:100 in the 1-4 age group.[xxxii]
Two provinces, Jiangxi and Henan, have ratios of over 140:100 in the 1-4 age group.[xxxiii]
Four provinces—Anhui, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hainan—have ratios of over 130:100 in the 1-4 age group.[xxxiv]
Seven provinces have ratios between 120:100 and 129:100 in the 1-4 age group.[xxxv]
Sex ratios are highest in the age group of 1-4 years and in rural areas, which will likely increase social tensions as millions of men are unable to find brides.[xxxvi]
Only two provinces, Tibet and Xinjiang, had sex ratios within normal limits across the age range. These two provinces are largely inhabited by minority ethnic groups and have more lenient family planning laws.[xxxvii]
Between 1986 and 2005 there was an increase in excess males at birth in all provinces except Xinjiang.[xxxviii]
The total sex ratio at birth is over 130:100 in three provinces (Shaanxi, Anhui, and Jiangxi) and over 120:100 in 14 provinces.[xxxix]
As an example, in 2007, Lianyungang city had a gender ratio of 163:100 for children under 5.[xl]
Another city, Suining city, had a birth ratio of 152:100 in 2007.[xli]
There is a gradient between urban (115:100), town (120:100), and rural (123:100) sex ratios at birth.[xlii]
Wealthier and more educated provinces, where traditional preference for sons is changing, produced medium sex ratios. A study in 2001 showed that more than 50% of women of reproductive age in wealthier provinces express no preference for a son.[xliii]
The provinces with the highest sex ratios are clustered together in the central-southern region.[xliv]
Recently, an economist suggested combating the unbalanced sex ratios by giving families with only daughters a subsidy worth one year of income. He projected that doing so would decrease the number of missing girls by 67%. Another solution he put forward was to implement a three child policy, which he says would reduce the number of missing girls by 56%.[xlv]
Sex Ratios for 2nd and 3rd Children in China
The sex ratio at birth for first children is slightly high in cities and towns but was within normal limits in rural areas; however, the ratio rose very steeply for second or more children in cities (138:100), towns (137:100), and rural areas (146:100).[xlvi]
There were very high sex ratios for second children in Anhui (190:100) and Jiangsu (192:100).[xlvii]
The ratio for second and higher births in Beijing is 149 and the ratio for second and higher births in Shanghai is 175.[xlviii]
For third births, the sex ratio rose to over 200:100 in four provinces.[xlix]
In Beijing, among third children, almost three baby boys are born for every baby girl (almost 300:100).[l]
The sex ratio increased steadily from 108:100 for those born between 1985 and 1989 to 124:100 for those born between 2000 and 2004.[li]
In rural areas, sex ratios rose steeply for second order births, where it reached 146:100. Nine provinces had ratios of over 160:100 for second order births.[lii]
In 2000, at least half of the female fetuses that would have been a second order, or higher, daughter were aborted.[liii]
Conservatively, between 1990 and 2000, 5.9 million girls went missing, with the increased first and second birth sex ratio responsible for 97% of those girls.[liv]
One particular variant of the one child policy, which allows a second child if the first is a girl, leads to the highest sex ratios.[lv]
One study from the early 2000’s found an astounding at-birth gender ratio of 385 boys to 100 girls for a woman’s last pregnancy.[lvi]
China’s Sex Ratios in the 1-4 age group by Province (# of boys born for every 100 girls) [lvii]
Male Crime Statistics in China
China’s crime rate has nearly doubled in the last 20 years.[lviii]
Incidents of social unrest have risen from about 40,000 in 2001 to over 90,000 in 2009.[lix]
It was found that sex ratios and crime rate were connected, with just a one percent increase in sex ratio leading to a five percent increase in crime rate.[lx]
The parts of China with the most male-biased sex ratios are experiencing a variety of maladies, all tied to the presence of too many young men. These problems include gambling, alcohol and drug abuse, kidnapping, and trafficking of women, incidences of which are all rising steeply in China.[lxi]
These incidents of social unrest are becoming larger, more violent, more likely to cross provincial borders, and more diverse in terms of participants and grievances.[lxii]
A study concluded that increased sex ratios are correlated with increased bride abduction, trafficking of women, rape and prostitution.[lxiii]
Unmarried men between the ages of 24 and 35 are also found to be three times more likely to murder than their married counterparts.[lxiv]
High male sex ratios can lead to more authoritarian forms of government in an effort to crack down on crime.[lxv]
High male sex ratios also lead to a lower rate of female literacy and workforce participation.[lxvi]
Unmarried men in China are almost always poor and uneducated, 74% don’t have a high school diploma. This number increases in the rural areas of China to 97%, with 40% or rural bachelors also being illiterate.[lxvii]
Lack of a female counterpart has led to a downward cycle for rural men. As one researcher described it, this is a “poor à bare branch à poorer” cycle. According to Nicholas Eberstadt, the enormous and growing inequality problem that already exists in China is furthered by the increasing frustration and anger by those who are left behind — those are disproportionately the unmarriageable.[lxviii]
The tensions associated with so many bachelors in China's big cities might tempt its future leaders to mobilize this excess manpower and go pick a fight, or invade another country. China is already co-opting poor unmarried young men into the People's Liberation Army and the paramilitary People's Armed Police.[lxix]
According to German scholar Gunnar Heinsohn, European imperial expansion after 1500 was the result of a male “youth bulge.” Japan’s imperial expansion after 1914 was the result of a similar male youth bulge. During the Cold War, it was male youth-bulge countries—Algeria, El Salvador, and Lebanon—that saw the worst civil wars and revolutions. Heinsohn has also linked the recent rise of Islamist extremism in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan to an Islamic male youth bulge.[lxx]
Political scientists Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer warn that China and India could be the next countries that, as a result of a surplus of men, will see increased violence and extremism.[lxxi]
Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard University, argues that the surplus of men in China will lead to domestic instability or militaristic expansionism, or even imperialism. This is all the more likely with the shrill nationalism already in Asia.[lxxii]
Previous societies with large numbers of unattached men have turned to a more authoritarian political system.[lxxiii]
[i] Gendercide: The Implications of Sex Selection, by Mary Anne Warren, Published 1985
[ii] Avraham Ebenstein, “The ‘Missing Girls’ of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy,”Journal of Human Resources 45.1 (2010): 87-115. http://pluto.huji.ac.il/~ebenstein/Ebenstein_OneChildPolicy_2010.pdf
[iii] CIA World Factbook, China, Updated March 15, 2013. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
[iv] CIA World Factbook, China, Updated March 15, 2013. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
[v] U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, Annual Report 2008, http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_house_hear...
[vi] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[vii] The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010
[viii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[ix] Cable 10BEIJING17, “Understanding China’s Rising Sex Ratio Imbalance,” January 6, 2010,http://wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10BEIJING17.html
[x] Avraham Ebenstein, “The ‘Missing Girls’ of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy,”Journal of Human Resources 45.1 (2010): 87-115. http://pluto.huji.ac.il/~ebenstein/Ebenstein_OneChildPolicy_2010.pdf
[xi] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences & U.S. Census
[xii] Tucker, Joseph Da, et al. “Surplus men, sex work, and the spread of HIV in China.” AIDS 19.6 (2005): 539-547.http://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/fulltext/2005/04080/surplus_men,_sex_work,_and_the_spread_of_hiv_in.1.aspx
[xiii] Dudley Poston, “Statement for Congressional Press Conference on the Issue of Gendercide and its Implications for Global Security,” All Girls Allowed, June 1, 2011. http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/statement-gendercide-and-implications-glo...
[xiv] Dudley Poston, “Statement for Congressional Press Conference on the Issue of Gendercide and its Implications for Global Security,” All Girls Allowed, June 1, 2011. http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/statement-gendercide-and-implications-glo...
[xv] Fores, Betsi, “Roughly 40 to 50 Million Chinese Men Will be Left Unmarried,” February 13, 2013http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/13/roughly-40-to-50-million-chinese-men-will-be-left-unmarried/
[xvi] Lee, Kevin, “China’s Growing Problem of Too Many Single Men,” Forbes, May 13, 2011http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011/05/13/chinas-growing-problem-of-too-many-single-men/
[xvii] The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010; U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, Annual Report 2008, http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_house_hear...
[xviii] Christophe Z. Guilmoto, “Sex Ratio Imbalance in Asia: Trends, Consequences, and Policy Responses” (paper presented at Fourth Asia Pacific Conference on Reproductive and Sexual Health and Rights, 2007)http://tinyurl.com/4ldcpgd
[xix] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xx] The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010
[xxi] Avraham Ebenstein, “Estimating a Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China,” Demography, May 19, 2011. doi:10.1007/s13524-011-0030-7
[xxii] Guilford, Gwynn, “Crackdowns Show How China’s One-Child Policy Keeps the Black-Market Boy Business Churning,” Quartz, March 26, 2013 http://qz.com/66862/crackdowns-show-how-chinas-one-child-policy-keeps-the-black-market-boy-business-churning/
[xxiii] Avraham Ebenstein, “Estimating a Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China,” Demography, May 19, 2011. doi:10.1007/s13524-011-0030-7
[xxiv] Hvistendahl, “Half the Sky.” Figures adjusted to 2011 currency rates.
[xxv] Guilford, Gwynn, “Crackdowns Show How China’s One-Child Policy Keeps the Black-Market Boy Business Churning,” Quartz, March 26, 2013 http://qz.com/66862/crackdowns-show-how-chinas-one-child-policy-keeps-the-black-market-boy-business-churning/
[xxvi] Havocscope, “Cost for Illegal Ultrasound and Abortions in China,” 2013 http://www.havocscope.com/cost-for-illegal-ultrasound-and-abortions-in-china/
[xxvii] Eberstadt, Nicholas. “A Global War Against Baby Girls: Sex-Selective Abortion Becomes a Worldwide Practice.” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, May 1, 2011. http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/global-war-against-baby-girls-sex-selecti...
[xxviii] Lavely, William. First Impressions of the 2000 Census of China; 2005 China One Percent Population Survey. Angus Maddison, “Per Capita GDP,” Historical Statistics for the World Economy: 1-2003 AD, table 3
[xxix] Kang C, Wang Y. Sex ratio at birth. In: Theses Collection of 2001 National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey. Beijing: China Population Publishing House, 2003:88-98. (referenced in NEJM)
[xxx] China’s 2010 census, as cited in “China's mainland population grows to 1.3397 billion in 2010: census data,” April 28, 2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-04/28/c_13849795.htm
[xxxi] U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, Annual Report 2010
[xxxii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxiii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxiv] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxv] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxvi] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxvii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxviii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xxxix] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xl] “China Warned on Gender Imbalance,” BBC, August 24, 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6962650.stm
[xli] Mara Hvistendahl, Unnatural Selection: Choosing Boys Over Girls, and the Consequences of a World Full of Men. New York: PublicAffairs, 2011.
[xlii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xliii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xliv] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xlv] Avraham Ebenstein, “Estimating a Dynamic Model of Sex Selection in China,” Demography, May 19, 2011. doi:10.1007/s13524-011-0030-7
[xlvi] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xlvii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[xlviii] White, Tyrene, China’s Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People’s Republic, 1949-2005 (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 2006), 205.
[xlix] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[l] The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010
[li] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[lii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[liii] Eberstadt, Nicholas. “A Global War Against Baby Girls: Sex-Selective Abortion Becomes a Worldwide Practice.” American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, May 1, 2011. http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/global-war-against-baby-girls-sex-selecti...
[liv] Avraham Ebenstein, “The ‘Missing Girls’ of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy,”Journal of Human Resources 45.1 (2010): 87-115. http://pluto.huji.ac.il/~ebenstein/Ebenstein_OneChildPolicy_2010.pdf
[lv] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[lvi] Junhong, Chu, “Prenatal Sex Determination and Sex-Selective Abortion in Rural Central China,” Population and Development Review 27, no. 2 (June 2001): 259-281, 272.
[lvii] British Medical Journal, BMJ 2009; 338:b1211, http://www.bmj.com/content/338/bmj.b1211.full
[lviii] The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010
[lix] Foreign Affairs, China's Dilemma: Social Change and Political Reform, George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham, October 14, 2010
[lx] Lena Edlund et al., More Men, More Crime: Evidence from China’s One-Child Policy, Institute for the Study of Labor Discussion Paper Series (Bonn, Germany: 2007). Referenced in Mara Hvistendahl, Unnatural Selection: Choosing Boys Over Girls, and the Consequences of a World Full of Men. New York: PublicAffairs, 2011, page 222.
[lxi] Brooks, Rob, “China’s Biggest Problem? Too Many Men,” March 4, 2013http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/14/opinion/china-challenges-one-child-brooks.
[lxii] Foreign Affairs, China's Dilemma: Social Change and Political Reform, George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham, October 14, 2010
[lxiii] “Sex ratios and crime: evidence from China’s one-child policy”, by Lena Edlund, Hongbin Li, Junjian Yi and Junsen Zhang. Institute for the Study of Labour, Bonn. Discussion Paper 3214; The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010
[lxiv] Robert Wright, The Moral Animal (New York: Vintage, 1994), 100.
[lxv] “Bare Branches”, by Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer. MIT Press, 2004; The Economist, The war on baby girls: Gendercide: Killed, aborted or neglected, at least 100m girls have disappeared—and the number is rising, March 4, 2010
[lxvi] Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer, Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005), 203.
[lxvii] Tucker, Joseph Da, et al. “Surplus men, sex work, and the spread of HIV in China.” AIDS 19.6 (2005): 539-547.http://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/fulltext/2005/04080/surplus_men,_sex_work,_and_the_spread_of_hiv_in.1.aspx
[lxviii]Fores, Betsi, “Roughly 40 to 50 Million Chinese Men Will be Left Unmarried,” February 13, 2013http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/13/roughly-40-to-50-million-chinese-men-will-be-left-unmarried/
[lxix] New York Times, Dudley Poston & Peter Morrison, China: Bachelor Bomb, September 14, 2005
[lxx] Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard in Newsweek. Men Without Women: The ominous rise of Asia’s bachelor generation. March 6, 2011. http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/06/men-without-women.html
[lxxi] Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard in Newsweek. Men Without Women: The ominous rise of Asia’s bachelor generation. March 6, 2011. http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/06/men-without-women.html
[lxxii] Niall Ferguson, Professor of History at Harvard in Newsweek. Men Without Women: The ominous rise of Asia’s bachelor generation. March 6, 2011. http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/06/men-without-women.html
[lxxiii] New York Times, Dudley Poston & Peter Morrison, China: Bachelor Bomb, September 14, 2005
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